This year’s NJPW G1 Climax Tournament promises to be full of drama, unpredictability, and, most importantly, incredible wrestling matches.
The G1 Climax field is stacked with immensely talented, charismatic performers. However, only one can stand victorious in the end. Who are the favorites to secure a spot in the main event of Wrestle Kingdom 13, who is in position to shock NJPW’s fanbase with G1 success, and who is on the outside looking in?
The Favorites
Kazuchika Okada
One of the most intriguing aspects of this year’s G1 is the fact that, for only the third time in his career, Okada is entering it without the IWGP Heavyweight Championship. The first two times Okada competed in the G1 without being champion (2012 & 2014), he went on to win the tournament.
There’s a very strong possibility he makes it three for three by winning this year’s edition. Whether Omega holds onto the belt until Wrestle Kingdom or not, it’s hard to imagine a Tokyo Dome main event that doesn’t include The Rainmaker.
Chance to win A Block: 50%
Chance to win G1 28: 25%
Kota Ibushi
Although he isn’t on quite the same level in NJPW as the other favorites, the stars seem to be aligning for Ibushi. From a storytelling standpoint, nothing makes more sense than The Golden Star winning this year’s G1 and going on to meet Kenny Omega in the main event of Wrestle Kingdom.
Still, because Kazuchika Okada exists, I don’t think Ibushi should be considered the odds on favorite.
Chance to win B Block: 30%
Chance to win G1 28: 20%
Tetsuya Naito
Mr. Tranquilo has had a strange year to say the least. He began it by losing to Okada at Wrestle Kingdom in a match many fans thought he was sure to win. Next, in April, he beat Suzuki for the IWGP Intercontinental Championship in one of the most disappointing NJPW main events in recent history. Then, barely a month later, he dropped the belt to Chris Jericho at Dominion. It hasn’t necessarily been a bad year for Naito, just a disappointing one — considering the fact that many thought he’d be soaring through 2018 with the IWGP Heavyweight Championship around his waist.
There’s a solid chance that the leader of LIJ could right the ship by becoming the third man to ever win back to back G1s. It would certainly be well received, as Naito is still a fan favorite, and much of NJPW’s faithful is eager for his coronation. That being said, unfinished business with Y2J makes a repeat of last year’s result seem a bit less likely.
Chance to win B Block: 25%
Chance to win G1 28: 10%
Hiroshi Tanahashi
Tanahashi’s glory days could be dead and gone. He may never win another G1 Climax. He may never even challenge for the IWGP Heavyweight Championship again. Who knows?
However, until Tana officially hangs it up, he should never be counted out. It may not be this year, but if I had to put money on it, I’d guess that he has at least one more run at the top left in him.
The Ace was Omega’s first major opponent in the heavyweight division, so a return to their rivalry for The Best Bout Machine’s first Wrestle Kingdom Heavyweight defense would make a lot of sense. Don’t be shocked if The Ace rekindles some magic and secures his ninth Tokyo Dome main event.
Chance to win A Block: 25%
Chance to win G1 28: 10%
The Dark Horses
Kenny Omega
Since the winner of the G1 Climax started receiving the Wrestle Kingdom main event contract in 2012, the IWGP Heavyweight Champion has never even made it to the final. This doesn’t bode well for Omega’s chances to win his second G1 this year. There’s definitely a chance that Omega could become the first Champion to pick his Tokyo Dome challenger, I just don’t think it’s all that likely.
Chance to win B Block: 15%
Chance to win G1 28: 5%
Minoru Suzuki
Suzuki may be the most legendary NJPW wrestler to never win the G1 Climax. Also, Suzuki is halfway to 100. As incredible as he is, his career is closer to its end than its beginning. Although it’s fairly unlikely, I could see the scariest man on Earth winning this year’s tournament as way to honor his remarkable career.
Chance to win A Block: 10%
Chance to win G1 28: 5%
Tomohiro Ishii
The Stone Pitbull is the most underappreciated wrestler on Earth. I truly think he’s every bit as incredible as Okada, Naito, Tanahashi, Omega, or anyone else on NJPW’s roster for that matter. He deserves a moment in the sun more than anyone. Also, who wouldn’t want to see his amazing rivalry with Omega renewed at Wrestle Kingdom?
Ishii should win G1 Climax 28. He probably won’t, but maybe he will. I BELIEVE IN MIRACLES.
Chance to win B Block: 10%
Chance to win G1 28: 5%
Tama Tonga
Before the G1 Special in San Francisco, I would’ve considered Tama Tonga to be the longest of longshots. Now, as the leader of the new Firing Squad faction, he has more of a chance to win it than ever.
There’s no way of knowing exactly how high the company is on Tama, but if they want to make him into a legit star, there’s no better way to do it than having him win the G1. An all-gaijin Wrestle Kingdom main event seems extremely unlikely, but if it were to happen, a fight for the fate of Bullet Club would be the only thing that fits the bill.
Chance to win B Block: 7%
Chance to win G1 28: 4%
Jay White
Contrary to what seems to be the popular take, I really enjoyed Switchblade’s US Title reign. I think he’s an interesting character and a nice change of pace in the ring. I wholeheartedly agree with my fellow contributor Martin that Jay White is ready for the NJPW main event. No better way to elevate someone to said main event than by booking them to win the G1. Admittedly, that kind of push this early in his career would be pretty insane.
Chance to win A Block: 7%
Chance to win G1 28: 3%
Zack Sabre Jr
ZSJ’s dominance in the New Japan Cup earlier this year is all the proof we need that NJPW is willing to push him to the moon. However, winning the G1 in the same year wouldn’t be a push to the moon, it’d be to the sun. I don’t see it happening, but I’d be remiss to say it’s not a possibility.
Chance to win B Block: 5%
Chance to win G1 28: 3%
The Longshots:
Hirooki Goto
Goto probably isn’t much of a threat since he’s busy having an excellent NEVER Openweight Championship reign. If he wasn’t, he’d definitely be a top pick to win this G1 Climax. Never say never with someone as important to the company as him, but it honestly wouldn’t make much sense.
Chance to win B Block: 3%
Chance to win G1 28: 1%
EVIL/SANADA
These guys are, without a doubt, a massive part of New Japan’s bright future. It just isn’t quite their time yet. Both of them just entered into their thirties, so they’re sure to start becoming more regular main eventers soon enough. I’d guess they’ll really start getting pushed higher when guys like Tanahashi and Suzuki start to phase out of the top of the card in the coming years.
There’s a chance that the trigger could be pulled now on a huge push for either, but I doubt it. Give it a couple more years and they’ll both consistently be top G1 contenders.
Chance to win A/B Block: 3%
Chance to win G1 28: 1%
Yoshi-Hashi
I can’t remember exactly what show it was on, but Kevin Kelly recently suggested on English commentary that Yoshi-Hashi is on thin ice with the company. I don’t know how true this is, but it wouldn’t be surprising as, apart from a couple great matches with Nagata and Ibushi, he’s been one of the most underwhelming wrestlers on the whole roster over the past couple years.
I’d love to see Yoshi-Hashi show some fire and reinvent himself in this G1. He’s shown flashes of potential, but he may need to start delivering more consistently to keep his job. Anyways, unless Gedo wants to shock everyone, YoHa isn’t a threat to win anything anytime soon.
Chance to win A Block: 1%
Chance to win G1 28: 1%
Toru Yano
Regardless of if Yano is his usual self, or if he brings a more serious tone to his matches (as he’s said in interviews), there’s little to no chance for him to win this G1. It’s just not going to happen.
Chance to win B Block: 1%
Chance to win G1 28: 1%
Michael Elgin
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There’s no denying that Elgin is an unbelievable in-ring performer. However, he comes along with heaps of controversy. I don’t think folks in Japan care quite as much as most fans in the States, but I have to think the company is aware enough to avoid the potential PR nightmare that would come along with pushing Big Mike to the main event. Even without any controversy, I wouldn’t consider Elgin much of a factor. So with the controversy, there’s no next to no chance.
Chance to win A Block: 1%
Chance to win G1 28: 1%
Bad Luck Fale
Maybe skinny Fale will get a mega push, but probably not. As always, expect him to pick up some big wins and be in contention, but in the end it won’t be enough.
Chance to win A Block: 1%
Chance to win G1 28: 1%
Hangman Page
I gotta be honest, I don’t get Hangman. I think he’s fine, but forgettable in the ring. And I don’t get the gimmick at all. With that being said, I probably haven’t seen enough of him to be giving a fair judgement. I’m excited to see what he can do in the G1, and I hope to have my mind changed about him by the end of the tournament.
Anyways, yeah. He almost definitely isn’t winning the G1. I’ll climb Mount Everest naked if he does.
Chance to win A Block: 1%
Chance to win G1 28: 1%
Juice Robinson
JUICE-S-A! JUICE-S-A!
I love Juice as much as you do… probably more, but he doesn’t have much of a chance. He has the United States Championship to worry about. Just like Goto, if he didn’t have a title I might consider him a dark horse, but he does. So yeah, probably not.
Chance to win B Block: 1%
Chance to win G1 28: 1%
Togi Makabe
Makabe’s best days are behind him. He proved he can still go in the ring with that match against Suzuki at the 46th Anniversary Show, but he just isn’t a factor New Japan’s main event anymore. Outside of a miracle, there’s no way he’s getting close to winning the G1 Climax.
Chance to win A Block: 1%
Chance to win G1 28: 1%
Next: NJPW G1: Who's Who in Block A?
Who’s your favorite to win the NJPW G1 Climax this year?