NJPW G1 Climax 28: The Favorites, The Dark Horses, and The Longshots
This year’s NJPW G1 Climax Tournament promises to be full of drama, unpredictability, and, most importantly, incredible wrestling matches.
The G1 Climax field is stacked with immensely talented, charismatic performers. However, only one can stand victorious in the end. Who are the favorites to secure a spot in the main event of Wrestle Kingdom 13, who is in position to shock NJPW’s fanbase with G1 success, and who is on the outside looking in?
The Favorites
Kazuchika Okada
One of the most intriguing aspects of this year’s G1 is the fact that, for only the third time in his career, Okada is entering it without the IWGP Heavyweight Championship. The first two times Okada competed in the G1 without being champion (2012 & 2014), he went on to win the tournament.
There’s a very strong possibility he makes it three for three by winning this year’s edition. Whether Omega holds onto the belt until Wrestle Kingdom or not, it’s hard to imagine a Tokyo Dome main event that doesn’t include The Rainmaker.
Chance to win A Block: 50%
Chance to win G1 28: 25%
Kota Ibushi
Although he isn’t on quite the same level in NJPW as the other favorites, the stars seem to be aligning for Ibushi. From a storytelling standpoint, nothing makes more sense than The Golden Star winning this year’s G1 and going on to meet Kenny Omega in the main event of Wrestle Kingdom.
Still, because Kazuchika Okada exists, I don’t think Ibushi should be considered the odds on favorite.
Chance to win B Block: 30%
Chance to win G1 28: 20%
Tetsuya Naito
Mr. Tranquilo has had a strange year to say the least. He began it by losing to Okada at Wrestle Kingdom in a match many fans thought he was sure to win. Next, in April, he beat Suzuki for the IWGP Intercontinental Championship in one of the most disappointing NJPW main events in recent history. Then, barely a month later, he dropped the belt to Chris Jericho at Dominion. It hasn’t necessarily been a bad year for Naito, just a disappointing one — considering the fact that many thought he’d be soaring through 2018 with the IWGP Heavyweight Championship around his waist.
There’s a solid chance that the leader of LIJ could right the ship by becoming the third man to ever win back to back G1s. It would certainly be well received, as Naito is still a fan favorite, and much of NJPW’s faithful is eager for his coronation. That being said, unfinished business with Y2J makes a repeat of last year’s result seem a bit less likely.
Chance to win B Block: 25%
Chance to win G1 28: 10%
Hiroshi Tanahashi
Tanahashi’s glory days could be dead and gone. He may never win another G1 Climax. He may never even challenge for the IWGP Heavyweight Championship again. Who knows?
However, until Tana officially hangs it up, he should never be counted out. It may not be this year, but if I had to put money on it, I’d guess that he has at least one more run at the top left in him.
The Ace was Omega’s first major opponent in the heavyweight division, so a return to their rivalry for The Best Bout Machine’s first Wrestle Kingdom Heavyweight defense would make a lot of sense. Don’t be shocked if The Ace rekindles some magic and secures his ninth Tokyo Dome main event.