WWE Cruiserweight Classic 2016: Why Kota Ibushi vs. Zack Sabre Jr. ‘Dream Match’ Won’t Happen

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The favored Kota Ibushi vs. Zack Sabre Jr. match to headline the WWE Cruiserweight Classic may not be as likely as one would think.

When the WWE Cruiserweight Classic field of competitors got announced in June, Kota Ibushi vs. Zack Sabre Jr. seemed like the early favorite for the finals. Putting them on opposite ends of the bracket only furthered this.

So, the Cruiserweight Classic’s opening, second, and quarterfinal rounds have come and gone. To no surprise, we’re left with Sabre and Ibushi in the semifinals. They aren’t facing each other, either, as Ibushi will battle TJ Perkins, while Sabre will wrestle Gran Metalik. It’s making it seem like the “dream match” is confirmed to be a reality. However, this is no formality.

Ibushi vs. Sabre is predictable, maybe too much. They’ve been pushed like top talents and arguably came into this tournament as the most popular ones. From the start, it has been all about these two, and may very well be the case in the finals. There’s no doubt the follow up to this push of putting these two head to head would be phenomenal to watch. It’s not a wrestling tournament without a shocking upset or surprise, though, and that has been created by how strong Ibushi and Sabre have looked.

Along the way, TJ Perkins has been taking down WWE fan-favorites in Johnny Gargano and Rich Swann. Both were cheered for over the former Manik, who got booed when he defeated them. His victories also arguably came as a surprise because they were over WWE guys. Gargano had been associated with NXT since the fall of 2015, and Swann joined the WWE Performance Center around the same time. So, why wouldn’t fans expect WWE to push their own guys to the crux of the tournament? Why would Perkins defeat those who had been with the company for one year?

To continue Perkins’ streak of upsets, he would pull off the ultimate one at the Cruiserweight Classic live special by taking down Ibushi. The former TNA star has found smooth and effective ways to ground his opponents, mostly by going for the legs. He could be booked to take out this body part of the ex-NJPW talent, limiting his high-flying explosiveness. Perkins would work the TJP Clutch on Ibushi once, possibly twice, and get the submission victory, a la Gargano and Swann.

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Gran Metalik’s work hasn’t seen him “upset” anyone in the Cruiserweight Classic. While he took down former WWE star Tajiri in the Round of 16, seeing the 45-year-old win the event over younger, up-and-coming talents wouldn’t make sense. The spotlight would have been taken away from someone else who has yet to experience the WWE stage. Defeating Akira Tozawa didn’t come as a surprise either, as he and Metalik had been positioned to be evenly matched.

The former Mascara Dorada going against Sabre would pit contrasting styles, something the latter hasn’t seen much of. WWE could book the Brit being “out of sorts” throughout, finding it difficult to adjust to the high-flying luchador. Moves like the Metalik Driver and the springboard Topé con Giro might throw Sabre off his technically-savvy game, and cost him in the end. It would be an intriguing story to play off of.

WWE has ways of working the upsets of Perkins over Ibushi and Metalik topping Sabre. However, there is one “backstage” reason that could lead to two upsets—Ibushi and Sabre didn’t sign WWE contracts.

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While it hasn’t mattered with wrestlers like Gargano and Swann being taken down, receiving the platform of being the inaugural WWE Cruiserweight Classic Champion may be something to give to the person who’s sticking around. This even goes for the stage of being in the finals of the live special. With Perkins and Metailk both confirmed for WWE Raw’s cruiserweight division. they would get rewarded with the finals spots to showcase themselves. Then, the winner gets to play off on Monday nights (and NXT) that they’re the CWC Champion. Why would WWE give that title to someone who’s not going to be seen after the tournament ends? While it seemed like they were trying to lure The Golden Star in with an NXT TV match and surprise victory, he won’t be around by September 19. Sabre also has commitments with EVOLVE, across Europe, and is the Pro Wrestling Guerrilla (PWG) Champion.

The case could then be made on why bother giving these two pushes if they’re not signing with WWE?

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Sabre and Ibushi bring star power, something WWE had to be aware of when bringing them in. Given their notoriety, they had a bit of an obligation to be pushed, and having them lose early wouldn’t seem believable. These fans are “smart” (however you may define that term), and wouldn’t buy it if they lost in the opening rounds.

WWE could have also been unsure heading into this if they could sign Ibushi and Sabre. So, giving them wins would hopefully help the cause. The previously-noted Ibushi NXT appearance may have been something WWE did to put their biggest chips on the table, hoping it would move the needle from “maybe” to “yes”. Sabre could have given an early indication that he wouldn’t be signing. It’s only speculation, but maybe he’s being paid more than others to compete, given his name recognition and wrestling acumen around the world. If you want the best, you have to pay them well, right?

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Kota Ibushi vs. Zack Sabre Jr. is the Cruiserweight Classic fan’s dream match. While there is a chance of this happening, a case can be made for the likelihood of this being less than expected. A surprise could be needed, and contracts were already given out. We may not know if these would be the reasons for potentially not doing this match, but it would make sense if it’s the case.