WWE Fastlane 2018: Is The Main Event Too Predictable?

Last week on WWE SmackDown Live, both Dolph Ziggler and Baron Corbin won their matches against Sami Zayn and Kevin Owens, respectively, to punch their tickets into the WWE Championship match at WWE Fastlane 2018. Does this make the main event too predictable?

There’s one match that hardcore fans want to see at WrestleMania 34 above all else, and that is a showdown between AJ Styles and Shinsuke Nakamura. The two of them put on an instant classic at Wrestle Kingdom 10 for the IWGP Intercontinental Championship, and there’s no doubt that they could tear off the house at WrestleMania in a WWE Championship match.

Nakamura’s spot is locked in as the 2018 Royal Rumble winner, but Styles must defend his WWE Championship at WWE Fastlane 2018 in a Fatal Five-Way. The match was initially a Triple Threat, as SmackDown Live GM Daniel Bryan wanted to give Owens and Zayn another chance at Styles after their controversial “tag” during a handicap match at the Rumble.

However, Shane McMahon had other plans, as he gave Baron Corbin and a returning Dolph Ziggler opportunities to join the Fastlane title match. Last week on SmackDown, Corbin and Ziggler earned convincing victories over Owens and Zayn, respectively, earning a shot at Styles’s WWE Championship at Fastlane.

Basic probability dictates that Styles’s chances drastically went down with the additions of Ziggler and Corbin, but is that necessarily true? Cageside Seats once calculated that champions tend to have the advantage in Triple Threat matches, despite the numbers stating we should expect otherwise. Although the match at Fastlane isn’t a Triple Threat match, it’s still a multi-man match, meaning that mathematics are essentially irrelevant.

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What isn’t irrelevant is the fact that Corbin and Ziggler are there to spice up the match. Ziggler’s abilities are well-established by now, but Corbin is quite the multi-man match extraordinaire. His Triple Threat match with Ziggler and Styles at the end of 2016 was fantastic, and he put together two great United States Championship Triple Threats with Tye Dillinger and Styles at Hell in a Cell and Ziggler and Bobby Roode at Clash of Champions.

In short, the WWE Universe doesn’t want to see Styles/Zayn/Owens again, so Corbin and Ziggler will make the match more interesting – and better.

But beyond that, the WWE wants to make things seem more unpredictable by inserting Ziggler and Corbin. There are more names, so that increases the apparent uncertainty of Styles retaining the title. Styles retaining the title is easily the most likely outcome, especially since people would likely be upset if Styles/Nakamura didn’t happen at WrestleMania. The WWE has already dangled that carrot by having Nakamura win the Rumble, so taking it away would cause whoever wins that Fatal Five-Way to be in a very tough spot.

Basically, I can’t see anyone other than Styles winning, and the WWE knows this. So by adding Ziggler and Corbin, the point is to try and throw the fans off. Having Ziggler in the match is perfect, because he’s doing this whole, “I want to finally have the main event of WrestleMania!” storyline. It is actually somewhat believable because of the storyline where he relinquished the United States Championship, but, well, the guy hasn’t even had a singles match at WrestleMania in his career. The main event of ‘Mania? That ain’t happening, sorry.

In fairness to the WWE, it’s not inconceivable for someone else to win the title. Maybe the WWE doesn’t want a babyface Nakamura vs. a babyface Styles (in other words, maybe they’re stupid). Instead of just doing the match (which is the smart move) or turning someone heel, they put the title on a heel for a Triple Threat.

Or maybe they decide to pull the trigger on Zayn vs. Owens for the WWE Championship at WrestleMania, tying up a storyline that has been the main event of just about every episode of SmackDown Live since Zayn turned heel at Hell in a Cell in early October.

Those are a lot of “maybes”, but amidst a sea of “maybes”, there’s one sure thing. And that sure thing is that AJ Styles vs. Shinsuke Nakamura would be an excellent match that just about everyone wants to see.

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All the other scenarios? Just ways of trying to throw us off the trail, which, in all honesty, only makes the Fastlane main event seem more predictable when you run through every scenario. I know the WWE likes swerves, but this really isn’t the time or place for one.