Potential Issues With a Rock WWE Return and Relying on The Old Guard

Everyone in wrestling is showing their support or discussing the issues with a Rock WWE return. The plans have changed, or were never actually in place, for his feud with Roman Reigns. There were several refrains bolstering fans of Dwayne Johnson's insertion into the main event, and more are likely to come. Most of those points are undeniably true regardless of the objections many fans post online. He is the biggest star of WWE's past and one of the world's most recognizable people. The idea is his match brings in new or lapsed fans and cultivates better ratings and media attention for the WWE.

Rocky's status as a wrestling legend and bonafide A-lister is not in question for anyone acting in good faith. However, there is reason to worry that his return is returning to an old habit that never worked while undoing some solid work by the company over the last several years. 

A Rock WWE return to help viewership could fail

Ratings are becoming less reliable indicators of success for wrestling, but they are still an important metric. They are also a metric that WWE hasn't always been successful with. Ratings are falling away thanks to streaming, but they help insiders evaluate where WWE has its biggest influences as opportunities for growth. According to Brandon Thurston's Wrestlenomics Annual Reports (available to Wrestolenomics patrons), you can see WWE's struggles and success on this front.

From 2018 to 2021, there was an overall decrease in total viewership, with 2020's Smackdown being the sole exception. Raw fell below 2 million viewers and under 1 million in the key demographic. Wrestleenomics data on the 18-49 viewership followed the same downward trend on all brands. 2022 turned the corner on Smackdown, stopping the steep drop from other brands. Smackdown's viewership grew by 2%, and Raw only fell by less than 1%, but not with younger viewers. By 2023, NXT and Smackdown were increasing their total viewership by more than 5%, with Raw admittedly still dragging behind. WWE saw its ratings improve overall when it focused on newer talents and fewer part-time nostalgia acts got involved in critical stories.

From WWE icon to wrestling iconoclast

WWE's average age for a viewer is 50+ across all three of its televised brands, with a slight downward trend from 2022. The report strongly indicates that wrestling generally has the most room to grow with younger audiences. Viewership data even backs this up in some ways. On average, 22% of households watching the three WWE television shows have children. With almost a quarter of households having kids to watch, the average age for a family-friendly product is 54, which means there is at least some possibility of making further gains with younger viewers. Looking at the young 18-49 demographic from the age perspective, you notice a possible flaw that may reflect why audiences went up and average age went down with the nostalgia acts disappearing.

Fans in the key demographic grew up on John Cena, Randy Orton, and even Roman Reigns or Seth Rollins. Much of this key audience segment would likely not see The Rock, for example, as purely a wrestler. If you were five in 1996 when The Rock debuted, you are 33 today. That means roughly half of those fans missed his debut and much of his run. Even by the most charitable accounting, five-year-olds from 2004 saw the tail end of Johnsons' full-time run with WWE. To them, an "attitude era" star isn't the return of a cherished act but instead any old celebrity from a bygone era. Returning stars are equally likely to be seen as outsiders taking away from the industry regulars as returning heroes.

Does narrative or names drive growth

The recent numbers show a clear difference in the WWE's viewers since the soft shift away from the old booking style and into a new era under new leadership. The demographics are shifting across all of television and live sports. In all of these cases, what is driving that growth? With live sports like the NFL, stories are less defined. Instead, stars on the gridiron or some increasingly famous fans might be drawing in the increased viewership. Most of the top shows today are scripted television, though. Fans didn't flock to Hulu's "The Bear" or HBO's "Succession" for the actors involved; they watched for the story and performances and became fans of the actors as a result. The same could apply to WrestleMania 40.

This is not the first time WWE has tried to use specific people and not stories to reach a target audience. Projects have failed using much the same logic. The Jinder Mahal experiment as WWE champion was to capture a particular segment of the crowd overseas, as was the introduction of the Sin Cara character. Both were given little creative direction, and both attempts failed to produce the desired results. Social Media did more to get Jinder Mahal over than his WWE Championship run ever did because it was a fun story people could follow and not just a moment of "look at this person" on our roster.

A Rock WWE return is a complicated business

Story or star power, long-term narratives or moments in the "now," this is ultimately what the WWE has to contend with. In Cody Rhodes and his never-ending story, the promotion could have their next John Cena. Assuming it isn't tainted heading into WrestleMania, his story will finally pay off after being a central plot point for nearly three years for the fans. With Dwayne Johnson, you have a world-renowned celebrity with deep pockets and connections in entertainment. While the reception has made him a villain on TV, his spot on the board can help tell new stories and even give WWE its newest corporate heel. 

There isn't a right or a wrong decision; it all depends on WWE's goals. Advertising executives and potentially lapsed fans could be attracted to The Rock as a character. How impactful that would be compared to a WWE without him will never be determined. Short-term moments and nostalgia have often been WWE's calling card. This new direction, featuring new stars and telling lengthy and more complex stories, has yielded some positive results. With the company's changes being made on and off screen, people are still determining how it will go down. The recent chaos is the number one reason why WWE needs to look forward and not behind. It offers a better chance to create the environment that fans and performers expect from a global entertainment brand. For better or worse, the overused "wait and see" approach is all fans have.