Sign the Line: Who is Winning the WWE vs AEW Free Agency Race?

Who doesn't remember MJF's bidding war of 2024? AEW appears to have won that years prior, with an alleged multi-million dollar-a-year offer. MJF himself recently shared with WrestleTalk that the offer was so great he signed it almost immediately. The offer for Lucha Brothers Penta El Zero Miedo and Rey Fenix must not have been as lucrative. The talented team is allegedly bound for WWE as soon as they hit the market. When the big three of Mercedes Moné, Wills Ospreay, and Kazuchika Okada all signed with AEW in early 2024, it was declared far and wide that WWE was falling behind in the free agency game. There is more to it than that, though. Three superstars, however talented, do not make up the totality of the complex contracts process. Halfway through the year, it is fair to look at who is winning the WWE vs. AEW free agency race and by what terms can victory even be declared.

Buzz for signings and how they translate to broadcast.

It seems that AEW gets free agents to sign on the dotted line more often than WWE does. Recently, WWE has made some waves with the addition of Stephanie Vaquer, Gulia, and Ethan Page to their roster as soon as they hit free agency. However, the massive signings of Ospreay, Okada, and Moné are just the most recent examples of a longer trend. AEW collects talented wrestlers from across the globe and puts them on weekly television. Each signee brings about another round of buzz online that powers the conversation and provides AEW with a boost in engagement. This reality is aided somewhat by the fact that WWE has more current and former stars to lose in free agency. It is bigger and has been around longer. However, from a numbers perspective, last year and every year prior, AEW consistently landed more names, including the big ones.

The evidence that new signees translate directly into better ratings after the initial buzz is thin. In a consumer world that is increasingly dependent on social media, that is an excellent asset for any business. The ratings for WWE and AEW remain relatively consistent. Wrestlenomics reports show consistently that from Q2 of 2023, all shows except Raw have been trending down. The rate of decline varies from show to show, but the role of signing or not signing a free agent from TNA or NJPW is unclear. Also unclear is how signing each other's talents has played into the ratings. The bump in social engagement is undoubtedly an excellent morale victory that AEW seems to be leading in. In general, it is better to have talent than not; everyone agrees with that.

Sign or Re-sign; there is more than one way to win free agency.

Grabbing headlines with a big name is just the flashy portion of free agency. Perhaps the most important aspect is keeping superstars off the market to begin with. WWE has had a record year in that regard. Some of that comes from having so many contracts due up, of course. However, there were some big names that WWE has locked down recently. Randy Orton, LA Knight, Seth Rollins, Drew McIntyre, and Natalya are all names that WWE successfully kept out of free agency this year. The most notable losses are of Bobby Lashley, Becky Lynch, and Ricochet, at least one of whom is expected to appear for AEW soon. For their part, AEW has re-signed stars like Buddy Matthews and Jim Ross, with a few big names still on the block.

By the retention metric, WWE is not only winning but also getting the title of most improved. Up until last year, the pipeline was pretty much going one way. Everyone in wrestling, WWE included, wanted to join AEW. The remarkable turnaround of WWE's fortunes here speaks volumes about the creative changes and big business happening in that promotion. The fact that the door out of AEW is starting to get a little more use is also notable, particularly as real stars like Ricky Starks and legends like Mark Henry are beginning to use it. Money is more than likely the top factor in any free agent's decision. Same with soon-to-be free agents. It is not the only decision, though, and the creative side of the industry is another way to determine who is winning so far this year.

Fresh faces and new feuds are built through free agency.

Having or keeping people under contract is not really what a company is for. It is nice to see people we like making good money, but we have to enjoy the products also. Both AEW and WWE are doing quite well right now, according to that metric. This is because both are freshening up their programs with new names through free agency. The signings and re-signings over the past year are evidence of that. All three of AEW's big-time signees and re-signed stars like MJF are at high-profile angles. His feud with Will Ospreay is exemplary of why free agency is so important. Two stars who have not previously met are clashing in a high-profile spot. WWE's feuds with CM Punk and Ethan Page, both newer signings, are doing well, too.

A roster for any sport can't be stagnant for too long. There needs to be changes and moves to improve. As stated above, you need to keep your most important pieces employed. Like in a traditional sports program, your captains and all-stars anchor the team. Looking at the televised angles, and by extension, who is doing more with their free agency wins, gives murky results. Both shows have had some misses recently. Each program is, by and large, enjoyable. The creativity of both shows resonates with their respective fan bases, showing that Tony Khan and Triple H are each keeping up with the pulse of their audiences and signing talent accordingly.   

So, who is winning the WWE vs AEW free agency race?

An individual's answer to that will almost surely reflect what night they watch wrestling each week. Truthfully, both companies have signed, are rumored to sign, or are looking to re-sign top talents. Each has pointed wins and a few tough losses so far in 2024. AEW has signed more buzzworthy talent, both in general and in 2024. WWE has consistently better ratings and a new TV deal with Netflix, while AEW falls short on both of those fronts. The case can be made for either company. That is a weak answer, though. So instead, I'll be honest. The winner is whoever pays the wrestlers more. Yes, there are holes to that theory, but by and large, that is what we should want as fans. The best talents are making a lot of money right now through free agency signings. We watch each week, so we enjoy the products. Who is best making their living for our entertainment is then the only metric left. Sadly, that means we will never know who that is.

The existence of an alternative has seen both AEW and WWE reach deep to offer cash or perks to talent. Rumors indicate that WWE, on average, pays more. That makes sense for the larger company. AEW provides more opportunities for outside payments, though, and recently, stars like Ospreay have claimed the money is just as good. The annual earnings are impossible to calculate because there is no publicly available data. What we do know from public comments and moves, though, is that each company is looking to change that. Will Ospreay was given a lot of freedom he craved, as was Drew McIntyre allegedly. Mercedes Moné allegedly secured big money for her services, and Randy Orton and Jade Cargill did, too. Wrestling salaries are secret, and the wrestlers who have commented, like Chris Jericho and Joey Janela, need to be taken with a grain of salt. The wrestlers, though, are the ones genuinely winning in free agency, and that is what is best for business.